000
FXUS61 KBOX 030946
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
545 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL WILL PUSH NE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS MORNING...
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND 50 MILES SE OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT
EARL WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WITH LOW END HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. EARL WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL STARTING TO HEAD NNE AWAY FROM THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC AT 09Z. NOTING THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ON IR SATELLITE
STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE RAGGED...WHICH INDICATES SOME
WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES INTO SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS. SOME OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS ALREADY REACHING INTO THE REGION. ALSO NOTING SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WINDS START TO
BACK TO E-SE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUSH INTO THE S COAST
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WILL PUSH N DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ALL FOCUS TURNS TO EARL AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION...MAKING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND TROPICAL
FORECAST MODEL SUITE TRACKS THE HURRICANE NEAR OR SE OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK.  HOWEVER...09Z FORECAST TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER
IS ABOUT 50 MILES OR SO SE OF NANTUCKET AROUND MIDNIGHT...RIGHT NEAR
OR JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS CONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN PLACE LAST NIGHT
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SHOULD SEE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 8
PM TONIGHT THROUGH 2 OR 3 AM SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT REMAINS
ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET FOR STRONG WINDS...WHICH WILL
DROP OFF AWAY FROM THE COAST.

AS FOR RAINFALL...STILL EXPECT A HEAVY SWATH OF RAIN TO PUSH AHEAD
AND WITH THE HURRICANE...AND THIS SHOULD REACH INTO EASTERN MA/RI.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

AS EARL/S FORWARD SPEED INCREASES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. MAY
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY...EARL WILL SPEED TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY
MORNING WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. EXPECT PRETTY GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH IN DURING THE DAY AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A
PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WHAT IS LEFT OF EARL AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE W. WILL STILL SEE BRISK TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR SO POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
AND ISLANDS. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR S OF THE REGION WHILE THE REMNANTS OF EARL MERGE WITH LARGE
LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND LABRADOR...KEEPING A GENERALLY DRY
W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ALSO STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LEANING TOWARD A CONTINUED
DRY PATTERN WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SOME SIGNS THAT A
FRONT MAY APPROACH EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BUT TIMING IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...STARTING OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EARLY EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARRIVING WITH RAIN AFTER 18Z. LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS E MA LATE.
E-NE WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35 KT ACROSS S COAST OF RI/MA...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AFTER 20Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS E RI/SE MA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE SHOULD SEE GUSTS
IN THE 40 KT TO 65 KT RANGE FROM PLYMOUTH TO NANTUCKET TO NEWPORT RI
AND BLOCK ISLAND DURING THE 21Z FRI-09Z SAT TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FOG PATCHES.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TROPICAL TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS DURING THE
00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME FOR NANTUCKET ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SAT. COULD SEE N-NE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...34 KT...BUT LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY AS
STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED PLYMOUTH COUNTY SE TO CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AND SW TO UUU AND BID.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 13Z ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE E COAST AS EARL PUSHES NE OF THE REGION...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED. W WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 KT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ISOLD
40 KT CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...OCEAN BUOYS S OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHOWING 5 TO 7 FOOT
LONG GROUND SWELLS WELL AHEAD OF EARL AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS. LIGHT S WINDS THIS MORNING WILL START TO BACK TO E-SE AND
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS FROM S-N
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS AROUND 50 MILES SE OF
NANTUCKET...LIKELY VERY CLOSE OR JUST INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE TO THE SE OF EARL/S CIRCULATION. EARL THEN RAPIDLY MOVES NE
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. DANGEROUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITH HEIGHTS OF AROUND 20 S AND E OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...W WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT LIKELY...WITH ISOLD GUSTS UP
TO 40 KT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SWELLS SLOWLY DIMINISH...BUT SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN ROUGH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS...BUT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR S COASTAL MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

STILL EXPECT QPF TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS SE MA AND SE RI...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE S COAST OF MA...THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM.
MAY SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

HAVE TAPERED PRECIP AMOUNTS DOWN TO 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
MA AND NE CT AND POSSIBLY 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES INTO THE EASTERN CT
VALLEY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER 2010 INCLUDES JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST

BOSTON...3RD WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 73.6F

HARTFORD...3RD WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 73.7F

PROVIDENCE...2ND WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 74.0F...CORRECTION
AN INCORRECT DATA SET WAS USED. AIRPORT DATA WAS USED INSTEAD OF
OFFICIAL CITY DATA WHICH WAS WARMER...74.4F IN 1949. OFFICIAL CITY
DATA BECAME OFFICIAL AIRPORT DATA AFTER MAY 1953.

WORCESTER...7TH WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD 70.5F

2010 DAILY 90+ MAXIMUMS THROUGH 9/1/2010

BOSTON...24 DAYS
RECORD NUMBER IS 29 DAYS SET IN 1983...FOLLOWED BY 28 DAYS IN
1955 AND 27 DAYS IN 2002 AND 1991...25 DAYS IN 1988

HARTFORD/BDL...32 DAYS
RECORD NUMBER IS 38 DAYS SET IN 1983...FOLLOWED BY 35 DAYS IN
2002...34 DAYS IN 1965...32 DAYS IN 1966

PROVIDENCE...17 DAYS
RECORD NUMBER IS 30 DAYS SET IN 1983

WORCESTER NEAR 1000 FT ELEVATION...5 DAYS
RECORD NUMBER IS 18 DAYS IN 1988 AND 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016.
     HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAZ019>024.
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ230-235>237-250-251-256.
     HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANZ231>234-254-255.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

NWS RAHNWS Office Area Forecast Discussion